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Why Trump Will Win Again
Edward Mccarthy '20 Contributing Writer
October 17, 2019
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The 2016 presidential election was the most controversial and polarizing election in recent history. To the Deerfield community, the election of President Donald Trump came as a shock., in part because the media portrayed the odds of Trump’s election as extremely low,But there was another, far greater influence at play in our Deerfield community. The isolated nature of the so-called “Deerfield bubble” allowed a select few to set the political atmosphere of the school community and, in particular, it was the faculty who set the liberal expectation.

There is no question that Deerfield’s student body is bi-partisan and many students in 2016 supported Trump, just as many students supported Clinton. But the problem lies in the fact that this diversity of thought means nothing if we only associate with like-minded individuals. Many students who only saw one side, whichever side that may be, were led to believe that their own side would prevail, as that was all that they could see. But this had a far greater effect upon the faculty because, while the student body is fairly bi-partisan, the great majority of faculty were and remain firmly anti-Trump. 

Credit: Madeline Lee

I believe that it is imperative for the Deerfield community to understand not only why President Trump was elected, but also why it was not a mistake, and why his support has only been growing. The first and arguably the most influential factor is that his election was a retaliatory response. Conservative Americans see the Democratic Party and Liberal America sliding down a slippery slope to extremism. Concerns over socialism, open borders, political sensitivity, the suppression of the freedoms granted in the Bill of Rights, and, most importantly, the inability to have a rational conversation with the Left leave conservative voters with little faith in the Democratic Party. They watch as a party once diverse in thought and opinion competes to be as “Alt-left” as possible

These concerns have led to a “red wave” movement within the United States. Since its inception, President Trump has continued to change the definition of what it means to be “red” as he is far from a traditional conservative. It is also important to note that Hillary Clinton represented everything about the left that had traditionally repelled the right. Clinton was vilified among Conservative voters because she had become a personification of everything they hated about Liberalism and the political system as a whole. President Trump’s new ideology  was a breath of fresh air to many Americans caught in the trap of middle class monotony.

It is this same breath of fresh air that I firmly believe will guarantee President Trump re-election in 2020. Not only do I believe that Trump will be re-elected, but I predict that he will do so by a larger margin both in the electoral college and the popular vote. At the most basic level, his re-election is assisted simply by being an incumbent. History has shown us that is extremely difficult to beat an incumbent: there have been only nine one-term presidents. History has also shown us that it is extremely difficult to beat an incumbent when the economy is booming. This factor alone puts the Democratic party at an immediate disadvantage.

The Democrats will also struggle with the media in this election because of the same reason it helped them in the last election. In 2016, mainstream media led much of America, as aforementioned, to believe that President Trump’s election was a long shot. This media portrayal led many voters that would have swung to Trump to instead support third party or independent candidates, some not voting at all, thinking that Trump was a waste of a vote. These voters now know, thanks to the 2016 election, that they are not a minority in this election and instead that they are in quite large company. Over the course of his tenure in office, President Trump has won over the large majority of these swing conservative voters. Because he is not a traditional right wing politician, he lost the support of many swingers but his record of service thus far has won over this constituency and will be yet another roadblock in the Democratic campaign.

This election will also usher in four more years of the youngest generation, the now dubbed “Generation Z.” There has been a fair amount of research and writing done on our generation’s politics and it is certain that we are one of the most conservative generations in modern history. Studies show that the left wing politics of the millennial generation has not carried over. We are not the next millennials, and, in fact, we are considered quite the opposite liberalism, and the political system as a whole. President Trump’s new ideology  was a breath of fresh air to many Americans caught in the trap of middle class monotony.

It is this same breath of fresh air that I firmly believe will guarantee President Trump’s re-election in 2020. Not only do I believe that Trump will be re-elected, but I predict that he will do so by a larger margin both in the electoral college and the popular vote.

At the most basic level, his re-election is assisted simply by being an incumbent. History has shown us that is extremely difficult to beat an incumbent; there have been only nine one-term presidents. History has also shown us that it is extremely difficult to beat an incumbent when the economy is booming. This factor alone puts the Democratic party at an immediate disadvantage.

The Democrats will also struggle with the media in this election for the same reason it helped them in the last election. In 2016, mainstream media led much of America, as aforementioned, to believe that President Trump’s election was a long shot. This media portrayal led many voters that would have swung to Trump to instead support third party or independent candidates, some not voting at all, thinking that Trump was a waste of a vote. These voters now know, thanks to the 2016 election, that they are not a minority in this election, and, instead, that they are in quite large company.

Over the course of his tenure in office, President Trump has won over the large majority of these swing conservative voters. Because he is not a traditional right wing politician, he lost the support of many swingers but his record of service thus far has won over this constituency. This win will be yet another roadblock in the Democratic campaign.

This election will also usher in four more years of the youngest generation, now dubbed “Generation Z.” There has been a fair amount of research and writing done on our generation’s politics and it is certain that we are one of the most conservative generations in modern history. Studies show that the left wing politics of the millennial generation has not carried over.

We are not the next millennials. In fact, we are considered quite the opposite. This will undoubtedly influence the 2020 election, as Gen Z voters, according to research, have turned largely conservative and will undoubtedly vote in accordance. This will be yet another obstacle for the Democratic party.

But what will ultimately lead to a Democratic loss is the utter lack of progress that has been made to foster a healthy relationship between the parties.

The Democratic debates have revealed to conservative Republicans that they have continued with their ill-fated pattern of extremism. Their rhetoric does not represent an understanding of conservative ideology and the non-stop onslaught of accusations and attempts to invalidate the presidency only solidify the American people’s doubts about the credibility, rationality, and morality of the Democratic Party.

Donald Trump’s election to the presidency in 2016 was a message. That message was not understood; his re-election in 2020 will send that message once more.